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The energy sector should continue to outperform as oil prices are likely to remain higher for longer on geopolitical risk even without a major escalation in the Middle East, according to Citi. The energy sector has gained 13% this year, outperforming the broader S & P 500 . .GSPE .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 energy sector outperforms Refinery stock Marathon Petroleum is leading the sector's performance with a gain of 33% year to date. "Our commodity team see higher for longer oil given the geopolitical risk even as a severe escalation seems unlikely." "However, in the short-term, the global reflation theme and tensions in the Middle East are keeping prices supported," the Citi team told clients.
Persons: Dirk Willer Organizations: Citi, Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Brent Locations: Refinery, Israel, Iran, Rafah, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIncreased risk premium but no spike in oil after Iran attacks, says Citi's Dirk WillerDirk Willer, Citi Research head of emerging market strategy, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to break down how geopolitical tensions could impact commodities.
Persons: Dirk Willer Dirk Willer Organizations: Citi Research Locations: Iran
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGood economic news is good news for the markets right now, says Citi's Dirk WillerBarbara Doran, BD8 Capital Markets CEO, and Dirk Willer, Citi Research Global head of macro, asset allocation and emerging market strategy, join 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action.
Persons: Dirk Willer Barbara Doran, Dirk Willer Organizations: Capital, Citi Research Global
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2024 won't be a turnaround story for bond yields, says Citi's Dirk WillerCiti's Dirk Willer discusses the outlook for stocks, bond yields, and the international markets.
Persons: Dirk Willer
Citi is turning more bullish on U.S. stocks heading into the end of 2023. The firm moved U.S. equities to a tactical overweight rating in a Wednesday note, underpinned by seasonality, stable interest rates and positive earnings growth. "With the January-October numbers now official — total return of 10.7% — the rule by itself would trigger a tactical buy signal into year-end." The analyst added that he expects interest rates and a steady supply overhang "should at least stabilize rates in the short term," further aiding equities. The note follows a move higher in U.S. stocks Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady for a second-consecutive month.
Persons: Dirk Willer, Jerome Powell, Willer Organizations: Citi, Citi Research, Federal Reserve
United States and Chinese flags are set up before a meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, Saturday, July 8, 2023. The U.S. economy expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, following 1.6% growth in the first three months of the year. Meanwhile, China's growth outlook continues to darken. "We may see similar growth rates between the U.S. and China, which is a concern for China because it is much poorer per capita," she added. The historic highs and lows of U.S. and Chinese economic surprises, respectively, will likely revert to mean as analysts adjust their expectations.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Mark Schiefelbein, That's, Goldman Sachs, Desmond Lachman, Dirk Willer, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Treasury, Rights, Atlanta Fed's, Barclays, Goldman, American Enterprise Institute, Reuters, Center for Strategic, International Studies, U.S, World Bank, Citi, Thomson Locations: United States, Diaoyutai, Beijing, China, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S
Citi upgraded U.S. stocks to neutral from underweight, as a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes becomes more likely and the U.S. economy fares better than expected. Citi also pointed to strength in U.S. tech stocks as a reason for the upgrade, as excitement around artificial intelligence boosts the sector. "AI may continue to remain a kicker, given that it is not far enough developed to disappoint expectations yet," Citi said. We implement this view by moving the U.S. back to neutral, and in the sector section, going overweight the tech sector." AI-related stocks such as Microsoft and Nvidia have been on fire this year, as investors try to capitalize on the latest craze.
Persons: Dirk Willer, Jerome Powell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: U.S
JPMorgan raised its outlook for emerging market hard-currency debt on Monday to "marketweight" from "underweight", saying the latest U.S. inflation data cemented a shift to the next phase in the cycle. In its 2023 outlook Morgan Stanley predicted emerging market hard-currency bonds could return more than 14% next year. Core CPI seems to be finally in," Citi Research's head of emerging market strategy Dirk Willer said in the bank's weekly strategy note. However, it might not be quite time for investors to dive into emerging market sovereign credit. JPMorgan's emerging market strategist Jonny Goulden said Federal Reserve hiking cycles were usually followed by a "wait" period before the onset of a U.S. recession, or possibly even an emerging markets financial crisis.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCiti’s Dirk Willer explains why cash is an attractive asset nowDirk Willer, head of emerging market strategy at Citi Research, joins 'The Exchange' to explain why cash is king as the Fed continues to hike rates as stocks and bonds go down.
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